Hurtig levering
Fremragende Trustpilot
Op til 20% Rabat på nye medlemsordrer
Kurv

Stock Market Crashes: Predictable And Unpredictable And What To Do About Them

SPAR
kr 253

Stock Market Crashes: Predictable And Unpredictable And What To Do About Them

'Overall, the book provides an interesting and useful synthesis of the authorsaEURO (TM) research on the predictions of stock market crashes. The book can be recommended to anyone interested in the Bond Stock Earnings Yield Differential model, and similar methods to predict crashes.'Quantitative FinanceThis book presents studies of stock market crashes big and small that occur from bubbles bursting or other reasons. By a bubble we mean that prices are rising just because they are rising and that prices exceed fundamental values. A bubble can be a large rise in prices followed by a steep fall. The focus is on determining if a bubble actually exists, on models to predict stock market declines in bubble-like markets and exit strategies from these bubble-like markets. We list historical great bubbles of various markets over hundreds of years.We present four models that have been successful in predicting large stock market declines of ten percent plus that average about minus twenty-five percent. The bond stock earnings yield difference model was based on the 1987 US crash where the S&P 500 futures fell 29% in one day. The model is based on earnings yields relative to interest rates. When interest rates become too high relative to earnings, there almost always is a decline in four to twelve months. The initial out of sample test was on the Japanese stock market from 1948-88. There all twelve danger signals produced correct decline signals. But there were eight other ten percent plus declines that occurred for other reasons. Then the model called the 1990 Japan huge -56% decline. We show various later applications of the model to US stock declines such as in 2000 and 2007 and to the Chinese stock market. We also compare the model with high price earnings decline predictions over a sixty year period in the US. We show that over twenty year periods that have high returns they all start with low price earnings ratios and end with high ratios. High price earnings models have predictive value and the BSEYD models predict even better. Other large decline prediction models are call option prices exceeding put prices, Warren Buffett's value of the stock market to the value of the economy adjusted using BSEYD ideas and the value of Sotheby's stock. Investors expect more declines than actually occur. We present research on the positive effects of FOMC meetings and small cap dominance with Democratic Presidents. Marty Zweig was a wall street legend while he was alive. We discuss his methods for stock market predictability using momentum and FED actions. These helped him become the leading analyst and we show that his ideas still give useful predictions in 2016-2017. We study small declines in the five to fifteen percent range that are either not expected or are expected but when is not clear. For these we present methods to deal with these situations.The last four January-February 2016, Brexit, Trump and French elections are analzyed using simple volatility-S&P 500 graphs. Another very important issue is can you exit bubble-like markets at favorable prices. We use a stopping rule model that gives very good exit results. This is applied successfully to Apple computer stock in 2012, the Nasdaq 100 in 2000, the Japanese stock and golf course membership prices, the US stock market in 1929 and 1987 and other markets. We also show how to incorporate predictive models into stochastic investment models.
Eksklusiv medlemspris 873 kr
Medlemspris 898 kr
Eksklusiv medlemspris og medlemspris er kun for medlemmer. Du bliver automatisk medlem når du køber til eksklusiv medlemspris eller medlemspris. Få 7 dages gratis medlemskab (herefter automatisk 89 kr/30 dage). Læs mere om fordelene
Gratis fragt
23 - 25 hverdage
10 kr
Lavt pakkegebyr
Normalpris 1.126 kr
Fragt: 59 kr
23 - 25 hverdage
20 kr
Pakkegebyr
Spar 253 kr
Se vores konkurrenters priser her
God 15.875 anmeldelser på
'Overall, the book provides an interesting and useful synthesis of the authorsaEURO (TM) research on the predictions of stock market crashes. The book can be recommended to anyone interested in the Bond Stock Earnings Yield Differential model, and similar methods to predict crashes.'Quantitative FinanceThis book presents studies of stock market crashes big and small that occur from bubbles bursting or other reasons. By a bubble we mean that prices are rising just because they are rising and that prices exceed fundamental values. A bubble can be a large rise in prices followed by a steep fall. The focus is on determining if a bubble actually exists, on models to predict stock market declines in bubble-like markets and exit strategies from these bubble-like markets. We list historical great bubbles of various markets over hundreds of years.We present four models that have been successful in predicting large stock market declines of ten percent plus that average about minus twenty-five percent. The bond stock earnings yield difference model was based on the 1987 US crash where the S&P 500 futures fell 29% in one day. The model is based on earnings yields relative to interest rates. When interest rates become too high relative to earnings, there almost always is a decline in four to twelve months. The initial out of sample test was on the Japanese stock market from 1948-88. There all twelve danger signals produced correct decline signals. But there were eight other ten percent plus declines that occurred for other reasons. Then the model called the 1990 Japan huge -56% decline. We show various later applications of the model to US stock declines such as in 2000 and 2007 and to the Chinese stock market. We also compare the model with high price earnings decline predictions over a sixty year period in the US. We show that over twenty year periods that have high returns they all start with low price earnings ratios and end with high ratios. High price earnings models have predictive value and the BSEYD models predict even better. Other large decline prediction models are call option prices exceeding put prices, Warren Buffett's value of the stock market to the value of the economy adjusted using BSEYD ideas and the value of Sotheby's stock. Investors expect more declines than actually occur. We present research on the positive effects of FOMC meetings and small cap dominance with Democratic Presidents. Marty Zweig was a wall street legend while he was alive. We discuss his methods for stock market predictability using momentum and FED actions. These helped him become the leading analyst and we show that his ideas still give useful predictions in 2016-2017. We study small declines in the five to fifteen percent range that are either not expected or are expected but when is not clear. For these we present methods to deal with these situations.The last four January-February 2016, Brexit, Trump and French elections are analzyed using simple volatility-S&P 500 graphs. Another very important issue is can you exit bubble-like markets at favorable prices. We use a stopping rule model that gives very good exit results. This is applied successfully to Apple computer stock in 2012, the Nasdaq 100 in 2000, the Japanese stock and golf course membership prices, the US stock market in 1929 and 1987 and other markets. We also show how to incorporate predictive models into stochastic investment models.
Produktdetaljer
Sprog: Engelsk
Sider: 308
ISBN-13: 9789813222601
Indbinding: Hardback
Udgave:
ISBN-10: 9813222603
Udg. Dato: 8 sep 2017
Længde: 0mm
Bredde: 0mm
Højde: 0mm
Forlag: World Scientific Publishing Co Pte Ltd
Oplagsdato: 8 sep 2017
Forfatter(e) Mikhail Zhitlukhin, Sebastien Lleo, William T Ziemba


Kategori Økonomiske- & finansielle kriser samt katastrofer


Sprog Engelsk


Indbinding Hardback


Sider 308


Udgave


Længde 0mm


Bredde 0mm


Højde 0mm


Udg. Dato 8 sep 2017


Oplagsdato 8 sep 2017

MEDLEMSFORDELE
GRATIS FRAGT
SPAR OP TIL 90%
Andre har også købt
BOG (INDBUNDET)
Eksklusiv medlemspris kr 380

kr 499
Normalpris
kr 392
Medlemspris
SPAR
kr 119
BOG (HÆFTET)
Eksklusiv medlemspris kr 200

kr 280
Normalpris
kr 208
Medlemspris
SPAR
kr 80
BOG (INDBUNDET)
Eksklusiv medlemspris kr 214

kr 320
Normalpris
kr 225
Medlemspris
SPAR
kr 106
BOG (INDBUNDET)
Eksklusiv medlemspris kr 199

kr 320
Normalpris
kr 211
Medlemspris
SPAR
kr 121
BOG (HÆFTET)
Eksklusiv medlemspris kr 191

kr 269
Normalpris
kr 199
Medlemspris
SPAR
kr 78
BOG (INDBUNDET)
Eksklusiv medlemspris kr 199

kr 299
Normalpris
kr 209
Medlemspris
SPAR
kr 100
BOG (INDBUNDET)
Eksklusiv medlemspris kr 199

kr 299
Normalpris
kr 209
Medlemspris
SPAR
kr 100
BOG (INDBUNDET)
Eksklusiv medlemspris kr 167

kr 250
Normalpris
kr 175
Medlemspris
SPAR
kr 83
BOG (INDBUNDET)
Eksklusiv medlemspris kr 919

kr 1.499
Normalpris
kr 977
Medlemspris
SPAR
kr 580
BOG (HÆFTET)
Eksklusiv medlemspris kr 138

kr 199
Normalpris
kr 144
Medlemspris
SPAR
kr 61
BOG (INDBUNDET)
Eksklusiv medlemspris kr 183

kr 270
Normalpris
kr 192
Medlemspris
SPAR
kr 87
BOG (PAPERBACK)
Eksklusiv medlemspris kr 166

kr 201
Normalpris
kr 170
Medlemspris
SPAR
kr 35
BOG (HÆFTET)
Eksklusiv medlemspris kr 194

kr 300
Normalpris
kr 205
Medlemspris
SPAR
kr 106
BOG (HÆFTET)
Eksklusiv medlemspris kr 172

kr 249
Normalpris
kr 180
Medlemspris
SPAR
kr 77
BOG (HÆFTET)
Eksklusiv medlemspris kr 175

kr 269
Normalpris
kr 184
Medlemspris
SPAR
kr 94
BOG (PAPERBACK)
Eksklusiv medlemspris kr 164

kr 199
Normalpris
kr 168
Medlemspris
SPAR
kr 35
BOG (PAPERBACK)
Eksklusiv medlemspris kr 115

kr 119
Normalpris
kr 115
Medlemspris
SPAR
kr 4
BOG (HÆFTET)
Eksklusiv medlemspris kr 138

kr 199
Normalpris
kr 144
Medlemspris
SPAR
kr 61
BOG (HÆFTET)
Eksklusiv medlemspris kr 410

kr 500
Normalpris
kr 419
Medlemspris
SPAR
kr 90
BOG (HÆFTET)
Eksklusiv medlemspris kr 138

kr 199
Normalpris
kr 144
Medlemspris
SPAR
kr 61
Vi anbefaler også
BOG (HARDBACK)
Eksklusiv medlemspris kr 840

kr 1.126
Normalpris
kr 869
Medlemspris
SPAR
kr 286
BOG (HARDBACK)
Eksklusiv medlemspris kr 665

kr 788
Normalpris
kr 677
Medlemspris
SPAR
kr 123
BOG (HARDBACK)
Eksklusiv medlemspris kr 528

kr 844
Normalpris
kr 560
Medlemspris
SPAR
kr 316
BOG (HARDBACK)
Eksklusiv medlemspris kr 490

kr 563
Normalpris
kr 497
Medlemspris
SPAR
kr 73
BOG (PAPERBACK)
Eksklusiv medlemspris kr 407

kr 506
Normalpris
kr 417
Medlemspris
SPAR
kr 99
BOG (PAPERBACK)
Eksklusiv medlemspris kr 339

kr 394
Normalpris
kr 345
Medlemspris
SPAR
kr 55
BOG (HARDBACK)
Eksklusiv medlemspris kr 760

kr 945
Normalpris
kr 779
Medlemspris
SPAR
kr 185
BOG (PAPERBACK)
Eksklusiv medlemspris kr 840

kr 1.081
Normalpris
kr 864
Medlemspris
SPAR
kr 241
BOG (HARDBACK)
Eksklusiv medlemspris kr 988

kr 1.070
Normalpris
kr 996
Medlemspris
SPAR
kr 82
BOG (HARDBACK)
Eksklusiv medlemspris kr 761

kr 1.014
Normalpris
kr 786
Medlemspris
SPAR
kr 253
BOG (HARDBACK)
Eksklusiv medlemspris kr 971

kr 1.183
Normalpris
kr 992
Medlemspris
SPAR
kr 212
BOG (HARDBACK)
Eksklusiv medlemspris kr 840

kr 901
Normalpris
kr 846
Medlemspris
SPAR
kr 61
BOG (HARDBACK)
Eksklusiv medlemspris kr 709

kr 844
Normalpris
kr 723
Medlemspris
SPAR
kr 135
BOG (HARDBACK)
Eksklusiv medlemspris kr 604

kr 788
Normalpris
kr 622
Medlemspris
SPAR
kr 184
BOG (PAPERBACK)
Eksklusiv medlemspris kr 201

kr 207
Normalpris
kr 202
Medlemspris
SPAR
kr 6
BOG (PAPERBACK)
Eksklusiv medlemspris kr 525

kr 607
Normalpris
kr 533
Medlemspris
SPAR
kr 82
BOG (PAPERBACK)
Eksklusiv medlemspris kr 485

kr 619
Normalpris
kr 498
Medlemspris
SPAR
kr 134
BOG (PAPERBACK)
Eksklusiv medlemspris kr 490

kr 563
Normalpris
kr 497
Medlemspris
SPAR
kr 73